Twenty-five years ago, I heard Church consultant Lyle Schaller talk about visiting Churches in an attempt to help them face the future. He said the very first thing I tell everyone is, “All of you are going to move, quit, or die. We cannot count on any of you to be here in the future.”
Although statistics vary based on the location of the Church, the average rate of attrition is around 20% for the local community of believers in the US. That means every year, a Church of 100 people loses around 20 people who are attending today. Reasons for this also vary, but Lyle’s categories are still valid: people move, quit the group, or go to meet Jesus.
Since this is true, for a Church to maintain its current size and ministry, it needs to be adding 20% growth of new people each year. Obviously, some of those people will be moving into your area as others move out. There is also a group who will quit one Church and then join another. So, some of the new people will simply come from a reshuffling of the deck. The rest must come from new converts, or the Church will begin to shrink.
For a Church of 100 people to grow each year, it will need to add at least 25 new people for minimal growth. As the numbers increase, the amount of people coming and going gets staggering.
When I heard Lyle say this, I thought to myself, “Not my Church. Everyone will love what I am going to build, and they will never want to leave.” Sadly, I was wrong. I could not control job changes, retirement, and death. I also had no control over people losing their faith and those choosing to join another Church because they had something more appealing. Slowly, I had to accept the fact that he was correct.
Whenever I hear someone say they are not interested in their Church growing or they wish their Church would stay the same because they love it so much, I know they are dreaming like I used to do. Churches are continually changing, and those who refuse to share their faith with nonbelievers are slowly dying because attrition rates are a real thing.